With the EV tax credit officially ending, EV sales are expected to take a hit this quarter. Even Tesla — which has proven somewhat resilient to competitive pressures and sales woes — doesn’t come out of this situation without some dents.
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Welcome back to Critical materialsYour daily report on everything related to electricity and technology in the field of cars. Also on deck: China’s war over pop-up door handles is shaping up and Tesla says it doesn’t need to worry about threats to ban sales in California. Let’s jump.
25%: Tesla sales decline 8.9% for 2025, Cox says
Photo: Mac Hogan/InsideEVs
With more competition than ever, a wide range of cars and buyers feeling politically betrayed, Tesla enters 2025 at a disadvantage. This battle continued throughout the year and placed Tesla below the market average for year-over-year sales growth.
According to sales estimates published by me Cox Automotive On Wednesday, Tesla’s 2025 U.S. sales are on track, down 8.9% year over year — from about 634,000 cars in 2024 to nearly 577,000 cars in 2025. And if you zoom in to check the quarterly performance, it’s pretty clear that things likely won’t get better before January.
The whole picture points to a bleak 2025 as a whole, with Tesla’s Q4 sales down a staggering 29.8% compared to Q3, and 22.4% compared to Q4 last year. This doesn’t necessarily indicate Tesla’s overall performance compared to its competition, but rather a broader snapshot of how the electric vehicle market as a whole will react to the loss of government incentives.
Tesla sought to combat this segment by introducing affordable versions of the Model 3 and Model Y earlier this year; However, these versions are abstract Failed to attract sales Which Tesla was hoping for.
Cox points out that the electric vehicle market artificially stepped on gas in the third quarter, as buyers look to take advantage of the EV tax credit that pulls the trigger while they still can. Since then demand has fallen sharply, as has the stock of electric vehicles Tripled From just 40 days to market at the end of Q3 to 149 days in November (that’s up more than 42% year-on-year).
One big reason is affordability, Cox says. Specifically, he points out that most electric cars fall into the premium segment and that only 9 EV models on the market are available for less than $40,000, compared to 56 ICE models. This represents a “fundamental affordability gap,” says Cox. It says only 3.7% of total EV sales have been under $40,000 since October versus 38.7% across powertrains.
50%: Cruise Scars Building GM’s Future of Personal Autonomy
Photo by: General Motors
GM decided that if you wanted to learn difficult and expensive lessons, you’d better reuse them whenever possible. after Cruise robotaxi efforts closed last yearGM decided to redirect those resources toward bringing self-driving features to cars that regular people can already have.
Car News He has the scoop on how GM’s new fleet of concept vehicles, combined with the expertise of Cruise staff, will pave the way for driving without looking. The automaker has outfitted 48 Cadillac Escalade IQ EVs and 90 GMC Yukon vehicles to collect driving data across the country. The outlet explains what these concept cars do:
Beyond Cruz’s technical expertise, scaling up the inattentive driver assistance system requires GM’s manufacturing expertise. The test fleet will provide insights into where to place cameras, how to scale up assembly and how to make vehicles practical for everyday use at a price customers can afford.
Unlike a fleet of robotaxis, personally owned vehicles don’t return to a central depot where they can be serviced and refueled every night, said Jason Eckelman, director of GM’s advanced vehicle integration team, who has a background in robotics and whose career at GM includes work on autonomous driving and advanced driver-assistance systems.
They should also have external sensors packaged in a way that keeps them safe from rain or snow when parked outside.
GM hopes to deploy Super Cruise for the Cadillac Escalade IQ by 2028 and eventually expand this system across multiple GM brands, platforms and vehicle segments. GM is betting that using Cruze’s expertise in this area will allow it to achieve this goal, so it is ramping up its testing efforts.
This is the real shift – to figure out exactly what works (and what doesn’t) in personal autonomy versus robotaxis’ past at a commercial level. Build something boring enough to satisfy regulators and exciting enough for consumers to take a chance on a purchase.
75%: Safety requirements for door handles are formed in China
Photo by: Tesla
China has declared war on electronic pop-up door handles After major incidents in the country led to doubts about these future devices. Reports about potential regulation have been circulating for months, and now regulators have issued draft legislation that would crack down on how car companies implement the technology in future models.
The proposed rules were published on Wednesday and would require cars to come equipped with mechanical door openers that are easily accessible from the inside and outside. This would make it so that any technology-centric auto company that does business in China and has deployed the technology — such as Tesla, Xiaomi and others — would need to implement a reform before the final version of the ruling takes effect.
Auto News China Sums up what to expect:
According to the ministry, the draft standard entitled Technical Requirements for Vehicle Door Handle Safety stipulates that every side door, except for tailgates, be equipped with a mechanically released external door handle.
The design must allow occupants or rescuers to open the door without tools after irreversible restraint system deployment or battery thermal deployment events. Vehicles equipped with electronically controlled or automatically activated door locking systems must still allow mechanical release even when the locking system remains engaged during such events.
The draft specifies that exterior door handles must be located within designated accessible areas on the door or adjacent door frame, depending on the type of door opening. Sufficient space for manual operation must always be maintained to ensure mechanical release, even in the event of a power failure or system failure.
Exterior door handles aren’t the only focus. Beijing is also targeting internal handles by paving the way for the imposition of easy-to-detect mechanical latches and It’s easy to reach.
The issue of electronic door handles without mechanical backups is not limited to China. Tesla has come under fire in the US for similar technology, which may fail to work in the event of an accident or power outage scenario. A Bloomberg The investigation and subsequent government investigation put this under the microscope.
100%: Who will win the race to personal independence?
Photography: Patrick George
Automakers are refocusing their efforts on autonomous driving, and the first company on the market to offer widespread autonomy will reap huge rewards. At first glance, you might assume Tesla would be the closest, but I’m not so sure. Which car company do you think will win the race?
